Dr. Ali Binazir, Happiness Engineer

The first measured 24 hour production from Bakken wells is a very good predictor of the future production of that well. And it has also been confirmed that new wells with higher well numbers are producing a lot less. By searching these two lists, then eliminating the duplicates that appear on both lists, we find that perhaps 70 to 80 percent of all wells report their first 24 hours of measured production. An example below, and notice the second well listed does not give any production numbers: I have collected, from this source, the data from 2, wells dating from November 1st to the present date. Enno Peters gathered data from several thousand Bakken wells dating from the early Bakken t mid There were a more matches than this but had no data or incomplete data. But it was mostly because only a little over half my data overlapped his. I converted his monthly data to barrels per data by dividing the monthly data by There were sometimes great anomalies in the data so to smooth things out, on the first three charts below, I used a 50 well average.

Graduate School of Business

Being awarded a fellowship to attend the seminar, which was jointly funded by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and the National Endowment for the Humanities, enabled me to take the time to read deeply in the literature of the profession, where I discovered that the failings I had been seeing in American archival institutions were not primarily a consequence of bad management, but of the fact that the best methods of the profession were inadequate to the task at hand.

Since , I have not pursued this research directly and the work has remained dormant. I have spoken about it publicly from time to time, but have not forced others or myself to deal with its conclusions.

Request PDF on ResearchGate | A Comparison of Two Business Cycle Dating Methods | We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points.

Research also finds mortgage interest rates and their underlying components to be important determinants of mortgage financing choices. In this paper we extend the earlier research and show that house price appreciation can have important interactive effects with those other determinants of mortgage financing choices. The analysis focuses on the period from to , an episode marked by rapid house price appreciation along with a persistent and notable increase in the use of adjustable-rate mortgage financing, including alternative mortgage products.

We find that higher house price appreciation dampened the estimated sensitivity of take-up rates among mortgage financing options to the underlying mortgage pricing components. The results, which are especially robust for fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages that are fully amortized, were not driven solely by observations in markets with especially high rates of house price appreciation.

Moreover, after taking into account the interactive effects with mortgage pricing components, house price appreciation is estimated to have had relatively little additional effect on take-up rates among mortgage financing options.

Erikson’s Psychosocial theory of human development

These methods include both classical and state-of-the-art technologies as well as new technologies as they emerge over time. During the life cycle of a product, several reasons can arise for making changes in existing analytical methods: Note that replacing an existing method is not the same as adding a new method to a release or stability test panel. Thus, significant changes in the method can create a substantial discontinuity between past and future data sets.

Also, specification acceptance criteria that were based on historical data from the existing method could be affected by the measurement capabilities of the new method.

Technical Notes for the Current Employment Statistics Survey. Introduction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects data each month on employment, hours, and earnings from a sample of nonfarm establishments through the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.

Blau and Richard M. Emerson, who in addition to Homans are generally thought of as the major developers of the exchange perspective within sociology. Although there are various modes of exchange, Homans centered his studies on dyadic exchange. When one finds they are rewarded for their actions, they tend to repeat the action. The more often a particular stimulus has resulted in a reward in the past, the more likely it is that a person will respond to it. The more often in the recent past a person has received a particular reward, the less valuable any further unit of that reward becomes.

Peter Blau focused his early writings on social exchange theory more towards the economic and utilitarian perspective, whereas Homans focused on reinforcement principles which presuppose individuals base their next social move on past experiences. Blau’s utilitarian focus encouraged the theorist to look forward, as in what they anticipated the reward would be in regards to their next social interaction.

Homans believed that social exchange theory was based on reinforcement principles. According to Emerson, Exchange is not a theory, but a framework from which other theories can converge and be compared to structural functionalism. To him, the meaning of individual self-interest is a combination of economic and psychological needs. They developed a theoretical framework based on the interdependence of actors.

A Comparison of Two Business Cycle Dating Methods

Blau and Richard M. Emerson, who in addition to Homans are generally thought of as the major developers of the exchange perspective within sociology. Although there are various modes of exchange, Homans centered his studies on dyadic exchange. When one finds they are rewarded for their actions, they tend to repeat the action.

The more often a particular stimulus has resulted in a reward in the past, the more likely it is that a person will respond to it.

Ron, gonna need some clarification. 1) You seem to say months 2, 3 whatever correlate to first 24 hour IP. That seems intuitive. If the initial number is higher, and the decline rate is somewhat the same, then out months should also be higher.

March Abstract This paper evaluates the ability of formal rules to establish U. We consider two approaches, a nonparametric algorithm and a parametric Markov-switching dynamic-factor model. In order to accurately assess the real-time performance of these rules, we construct a new unrevised “real-time” data set of employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, and personal income.

We then apply the rules to this data set to simulate the accuracy and timeliness with which they would have identified the NBER business cycle chronology had they been used in real time for the past 30 years. Both approaches accurately identified the NBER dated turning points in the sample in real time, with no instances of false positives.

Further, both approaches, and especially the Markov-switching model, yielded significant improvement over the NBER in the speed with which business cycle troughs were identified. In addition to suggesting that business cycle dating rules are an informative tool to use alongside the traditional NBER analysis, these results provide formal evidence regarding the speed with which macroeconomic data reveals information about new business cycle phases.

C22, E32 Suggested Citation: Louis Working Paper No.

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The reason is that central banks react to variables, such as inflation and the output gap, which are endogenous to monetary policy shocks. Endogeneity implies a correlation between regressors and the error term, and hence, an asymptotic bias. In principle, Instrumental Variables IV estimation can solve this endogeneity problem. In practice, IV estimation poses challenges as the validity of potential instruments also depends on other economic relationships.

We argue in favor of OLS estimation of monetary policy rules.

Appendix a comparison of the results are found by nber business cycle dating methods’, such as the duration of business cycle is of. Validation and director centre for a new approach can be. Business cycles, recessions and pagan note that the previously discussed quarterly dating methods of the resemblance of two methods.

Abstract This paper evaluates the ability of formal rules to establish U. We consider two approaches, a nonparametric algorithm and a parametric Markov-switching dynamic-factor model. In order to accurately assess the real-time performance of these rules, we construct a new unrevised “real-time” data set of employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, and personal income. We then apply the rules to this data set to simulate the accuracy and timeliness with which they would have identified the NBER business cycle chronology had they been used in real time for the past 30 years.

Both approaches accurately identified the NBER dated turning points in the sample in real time, with no instances of false positives. Further, both approaches, and especially the Markov-switching model, yielded significant improvement over the NBER in the speed with which business cycle troughs were identified. In addition to suggesting that business cycle dating rules are an informative tool to use alongside the traditional NBER analysis, these results provide formal evidence regarding the speed with which macroeconomic data reveals information about new business cycle phases.

This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item. Download Info If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Please be patient as the files may be large. Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under “Related research” further below or search for a different version of it.

Dr. Ali Binazir, Happiness Engineer

Courses The mission of the Stanford Graduate School of Business is to create ideas that deepen and advance the understanding of management, and with these ideas, develop innovative, principled, and insightful leaders who change the world. The two-year Master of Business Administration M. Interdisciplinary themes of critical analytical thinking, creativity and innovation, and personal leadership development differentiate the Stanford M. Dual Degree programs are offered with the School of Medicine M.

A and the program in International Policy Studies M.

Heroes and Villains – A little light reading. Here you will find a brief history of technology. Initially inspired by the development of batteries, it covers technology in general and includes some interesting little known, or long forgotten, facts as well as a few myths about the development of technology, the science behind it, the context in which it occurred and the deeds of the many.

For legal professionals, Brett navigates firms of all sizes through e-discovery challenges and provides objective recommendations for litigation support tools and workflows. For corporations, Brett lowers costs associated with litigation by assessing their information governance readiness and providing recommendations on how they can proactively manage voluminous data stores. Brett is also a highly sought-after trainer and presenter for lawyers who seek to integrate Macs and iPads into their practice.

Brett is an esteemed author and speaker on legal technology topics. Brett speaks regularly for local and state bar associations nationwide, and is routinely quoted in industry interviews for TechnoLawyer, Legaltech News, ABA Journal, and more. Prior to Burney Consultants, Brett Burney supported lawyers at the law firm of Thompson Hine LLP where he worked with litigation teams in building electronic document databases, counseling on e-discovery issues, and managing the technical responsibilities of presenting evidence at trial.

Geoff brings over thirteen years of legal process optimization and litigation discovery leadership experience, helping clients design defensible and cost-effective solutions to accelerate speed to legal intelligence and achieve better legal outcomes. Prior to that, Geoff worked in a variety of business and in-house legal roles for technology companies in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Overcoming Your Dating Inexperience

Footnotes Intro duction In July , after great trepidation, I finally decided to revise this essay. It was my website’s last major essay to be revised, in order to align my site with my big energy essay. To do justice to this essay’s subjects would take months of work, but I do not have the time or emotional reserves to do it.

When I wrote the first draft of this essay in , it was a harrowing ordeal and the process inspired me to quit drinking, which I accomplished the next year.

Social exchange theory is a social psychological and sociological perspective that explains social change and stability as a process of negotiated exchanges between parties. Social exchange theory posits that human relationships are formed by the use of a subjective cost-benefit analysis and the comparison of alternatives. The theory has roots in economics, psychology and sociology.

Mauzuru 1 In the absence of any official guidelines hwo tourism organizations about undertaking the dating process, industry and academic researchers have applied a variety of. News Combine the interpretation of spain, 8th. A comparison of two business cycle dating methods Systematic comparisons are the papers proposing different detrending methods transition. Loss of view, the indicator observation in. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors toorif you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profileclick on “citations” and make appropriate adjustments.: Univariate linear and expansion and. We study the suggestion that Markov switching MS models should be used to determine cyclical turning points.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

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Preliminary versions of economic research. Did Consumers Want Less Debt? Consumer Credit Demand Versus Supply in the Wake of the Financial Crisis.

Survey Results Hey there, ladies! Turns out that almost every woman has had some kind of experience with bad boys, not all of them healthy. Thanks for opening my eyes. Time to take out the trash! This post really hit me. He has commitment issues and will never really settle down with me. Your advice is apt. I am addicted and need to figure out what I want and move on.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

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Although the two approaches to dating business cycles may appear very comparable when expressed in these terms, there is an important philosophical distinction between them.

History of Technology Heroes and Villains – A little light reading Here you will find a brief history of technology. Initially inspired by the development of batteries, it covers technology in general and includes some interesting little known, or long forgotten, facts as well as a few myths about the development of technology, the science behind it, the context in which it occurred and the deeds of the many personalities, eccentrics and charlatans involved.

You may find the Search Engine , the Technology Timeline or the Hall of Fame quicker if you are looking for something or somebody in particular. Scroll down and see what treasures you can discover. Background We think of a battery today as a source of portable power, but it is no exaggeration to say that the battery is one of the most important inventions in the history of mankind.

Volta’s pile was at first a technical curiosity but this new electrochemical phenomenon very quickly opened the door to new branches of both physics and chemistry and a myriad of discoveries, inventions and applications. The electronics, computers and communications industries, power engineering and much of the chemical industry of today were founded on discoveries made possible by the battery. Pioneers It is often overlooked that throughout the nineteenth century, most of the electrical experimenters, inventors and engineers who made these advances possible had to make their own batteries before they could start their investigations.

Subcontracting operations and activities in manufacturing